Can Bitcoin / cryptocurrencies replace the US dollar / US government and fiat currencies? Can Bitcoin be the revolution that takes down the fraud that is central / commercial banks worldwide? Have they finally gone too far with zero interest rate policies and quantitative easing? Probably, but believe it or not, that is besides the point. Bitcoin is not capable of implementing even some of the most basic functions of monetary policy.
For one, Bitcoin isn't even inflationary (well, it won't be in the long-term), which would be unhealthy for the economies it supports (especially for those driven by consumption). In addition, credit in a Bitcoin based economy would be rather difficult. Monetary policy helps alleviate both credit crunches and overheated economies through influencing interest rates.
While such actions have been controversial, they have worked well for us (literally US) over time and has helped create some of the wealthiest nations in the world by bolstering GDP by encouraging spending when it is slow and decreasing probability of the economy overheating.
Bitcoin would have to lose its function as a store of value to become a true currency that encouraged spending, in which case it would no longer really be an investment anyway. Instead, Bitcoin should operate as an alternative to traditional payment channels and fiat currencies for remittances and general business transactions for those who "opt-in." There is plenty of market share here and it is realistic.
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Everyone - getting tons of comments, lots of them criticism, some nice ones. I read them all. I'll likely do a follow-up video for this at some point in future, but not going to throw it together haphazardly. I will likely write an article along with it (which forces me to cite all my sources) and also present the other side of the argument more fairly. Continue on commenting, it helps give new ideas for that video. I appreciate ALL of the feedback everyone, even the trolls.
J I agree and inflation doesnt need more dollars just the cost of things needs to rise. If the items price never change and the value of the dollar went down that would be the same as...the dollar staying the same and the price of things going up. Bitcoin could be used as both because all that needs to happen for inflation it one of the two things (currency or the item price) to go up.
I think bitcoin and other crypto currency are worth watching at least for now. I do like the concept of decentralized currency and a ledger that can be viewed and verified.
Unfortunately bitcoin appears to be just like the stock market and other fiat currency with nothing to back it up but as promise.
If you have sold information you can share with me that doesn’t include a sales pitch I would like to know more.
@verdelufe........I was just saying that the US economy went from an agriculture economy, then a manufacturing one, then a service economy, and now today it's primarily a financialization service economy. Almost 60% of all corporate profits today comes from banking, financial & wall street services. And the game is RIGGED! You are a kind person, and I hope you have a great weekend.
So what if someone creates a video game that you pay in bitcoin to play. Then you get paid in the game depending on you winning or losing. That gives you incentive to spend your bitcoin. There can be things like that that keep people spending bitcoin instead of just hodling as far as u saying no one wants to spend it. At least right now obviously cuz everyone is preparing for the vision. What if only certain buisness accept btc then you will have to spend btc ...
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This view on inflation is retarded and extremely toxic. We do not need a powerful overlord entity to encourage us to spend money by stealing a portion of all we don't spend every year. That whole idea is absolutely insane and is the most obvious lie clearly made and supported by those that benefit at the expense of everyone in society
I think your analysis is wrong. Bitcoin will make the fraudulent concept of debt and 'interest rates' redundant. The concept can be kept alive only when extra currency can be created to pay off the interest of the debt. All monetary policies and fiat will be redundant. Bitcoin will be a universal unregulated medium of exchange.
6:01 The economic policy that made the US Great failed when profits became privatized and losses passed to the taxpayer in 2008.
Think about it. If the economy was sane, bitcoin would never have taken off.
perhaps due to regulation the economy favors for consumption rather than production. so if the economy were otherwise we could have better stores of value such as bitcoin, but our economy as you pointed out is rather skewed towards consumption. inflation is bad and it won't do shit. because people are holding on to their money regardless, and just like raising minimum wage the market will adjust and the government will still be out of the money. people are turning to production and doing things themselves, and services economy. we don't need inflation. we need a lack of government and a more balanced economy.
We shouldn't worry about deflation that Bitcoin could cause if it is ever going to become global currency. Because there are many more reasons for inflation to happen other than government keep issuing new moneys. In my opinion, the deflation effect from bitcoin limited supply could stabilize the economy, and perhaps the healthy 2% inflation rate you mentioned could be achieved rather than the current 10% inflation rate that has been happening all this time.
By using Bitcoin as currency, we could also rest assured, that our money, will not ever suffer like Venezuelan and Zimbabwe currencies did. If we keep using fiat, there will always a chance for it is going to happen someday.
Some people also argued that Bitcoin is too violatile to be used as currency. That is not true, if everyone agreed to use it, it will stabilize on certain point. The higher it goes up, the more stable it is tend to.
You did not mention transfers remittance such as swift which is antiquated and old bitcoin can transfer millions of dollars with very low fees across the globe. And that does not even consider stellar lumens or ripple which are very fast and very cheap for remittance compared to banking system which is slow expensive. You also did not mention lightning network, this will be the answer to regular trade buying your morning coffee when layer 2 systems come out of beta this is what we will all be using.
First off the reason the centralized banking system was created was to avoid the total collapse of currency. And yes it is based on debt.
Unfortunately credit and cash on demand is necessary even though it results in debt. Any business owner has to be willing to operate on this concept.
Any business owner will tell you the reality is someone, usually the end consumer creates the deb vacuum by expecting credit. Be it for a candy bar, a vehicle, a house, an education, etc. This travels upstream ultimately someone with deep pockets has to hold the note. This is where the central banks come in.
Hi, tks for your inputs that stimulates my reflection.
Some key elements that are important should be discussed.
Regarding money supply, I don't understand the mechanism of money supply of crypto-currencies.
Regarding interest rates of crypto-currencies ... is there any ? Or is there simply no interests mechanism ?
Regarding the possibility of a global crypto-currency, I would like to raise as an example the problem that we face in Europe with the Euro : Euro is under-evaluated regarding the power of the German economy, thus stimulating their exportation, whereas is it over-evaluated regarding the weakness of south-european country thus refraining their economy. In other words Euro is stimulating the northern on the back of the southern. Extrapolating this to a global crypto-currency we can easily imagine what may happen with US/Europe vs. poor countries.
Furthermore the value of the USD resides not in the industrial strength or capacity to export, but is backed-up by the petro-dollar and the military capacity to enforce the petro-dollar (ex: Irak). In other terms, I don't understand what backs-up or could back-up crypto-currencies.
Finally, considering that fiat currency is the expression of sovereignty of a country, is crypto-currency capable to challenge this ? As an example the petro-yuan is a real threat for the US.
Lots of questions ... would love to have some comments or even better it could be a topic for a new video.
Tks in advance
All true! Bitcoin is a finite currency also, where as the literally is no limit feasible to the creation of new US dollars, (aside for hyperinflation of course). A lot of the hatred for fiat currencies is the fact that those who do so completely misunderstand how monetary policy works in the first place! The Fed is our central Bank and is literally part of the US Government and is only independent so far as the internal workings of the institution. And like all central banks, IT IS NOT THE ENTITY RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING NEW US DOLLARS! Congress are the ones who control government spending, and every dollar in circulation had to have first been spent into creation by the US government. The fed acts as the gov's bank and then transfers the dollars that were put into the Treasuries' account as ordered to by congress at the Fed, and pushes that new money into the market through loans to banks. The Fed also is the one who pegs the interest rates. The Fed has certainly made some really bad financial policy maneuvers, but it has no connection to the increase of new dollars or the decrease, much like a commercial bank isn't making new dollars every time you go and take money from ur own debt account.
I will put this in terms non nerds can relate to.....We once took photos using film, we once listen to music on tape and vinyl,
We watch movies on film, they’re all digital, We once used a cd to install software (Auto Downloads), We once used VCRs to watch video (Netflix)....Phones once had physical buttons(touchscreens)....Credit Cards once upon time were viewed exactly as bitcoin, We once bought music from outlets (Tower Records).....To further this random analogy.....Massive company’s spend millions to move billions in money, how? Digitally that’s how....imagine the fees it would cost to move paper verses digital 1’s and 0’s.....or to better put it imagine carrying you entire cd collection around with you verses carrying 32gb iPod....(shoulder shrugs) Company’s have already started digitally moving money and have been doing so since the 70s....1 final point is all of this is based on PEOPLE deciding on what’s more convenient lugging cds around or simply having access to all music for a low fee.....Bitcoin may not be the end all be all....but For sure we will be a cashless world.... it is inevitable..
In my opinion fiat injection to the economy does more harm than good. The resulant economic activity (economic boom) is more of a profit driven boom and not value driven. This means usesless products are created, unhealthy food promoted all for the sake of profit. But does these creativities create more value for the country? Not necessarily. If we will look at history there has been more prosperity (not in material but in time availability) for the people of antiquity.
A centralized digital currency will be needed if bitcoin were to collapse after it gets way bigger first: a centralized world reserve digital currency with each nation creating their own digital currency valued off the world reserve currency. Cryptocurrency is only the catalyst for the new world reserve and national digital currencies. The collapse of cryptos is the reset for the world. Negative interest will replace inflation. Also, there can still be a little paper and coin currencies linked to the national currencies for people not online; each nation can make that call. That is my guess.
Seriously none of your arguments make sense to me. I don't think inflation makes me spend more. You never need money supply to get a job done it is a flawed Concept. You need people's willingness to get the job done.
People are fiat too.
It can be a "Store of Value" if, (1) population or world GDP increases in a fiat sense, (2) it is thought of as a retirement nestegg. Remittances are handled just fine via fiat, and because crypto is deflationary, it will never be sold until it must be sold (to fund retirement).
Crypto is like buying time, units of time, that last forever, and fiat is like buying waste, units of waste, and it must be disposed of as quickly as possible.
a currency cannot store value? Because fiat currency always loses value? WHAT! Gold and other metals have been, historically a currency, coin and store of value. Most of the World was on the gold standard before 1970...
The USD was tied to oil around 1973, IIRC... this is about to go away.
I would say the issue with bitcoin and other cryptos - at the moment - is that the speed of transaction is fairly slow and energy intensive. These issues will eventually be solved. bitcoins value is its utility for transactions between parties (security, distributed ledger, block chain), some pseudonymity (depending not the coin) and proof of work (SHA256 or other methods).
Possibly in less than a month, Silver, Gold and Crypto will come back and the US dollar may well implode under the debt. All China needs is some countries to exclusively sell or buy oil with a gold backed Yuan.
With most of your videos I like the objective opinions u have but in this vid I don't agree look people will spend money regardless and this technology is alway ready creating new ways of making money like steem it maybe the old system needs to change people always used gold silver in the past cash government money is a new system but doesn't work inflation is bad even if it helps a a little in GDP growth at the cost of making everyone money going down sorry I'm i really don't agree with this
What if the world was completely decentralised government and all... credits I don't believe n that unless people can hedge something valuable to the credit maybe but completely lending credit on nothing... it never works and why should people spend money they don't have. The system is broken country's and governments do we really need them if we have a decentralise planet and governance maybe that's would work better now we have a decentralise platform systems bitcoin maybe we can apply the same system.
You want to encourage savings, not spending. When there are lots of savings, interest rates naturally go down to encourage borrowing and spending. There's a natural balance that printing money and controlling interest rates (the price of money) throws completely off. Why would powerful (gov and gov created banks) people manipulating money and markets be good? it's can't. It only benefits those in power. Inflating the money supply is theft.
Sven D check out Ray Dalio video
“ economic machine” it’s weird to think as debt as being “good” but it’s needed in our economy that’s how messed up and corrupt our system is. The further you go down the rabbit hole the more you see this entire thing as being a job on all of us. And see how disrupted blockchain itself is to the existing institutions.
dude everyones holding btc cause its early, eventually when its late in the game, the HODL strategy isn't the thing to do. and inflation isn't needed because most people dont even know what inflation is or care what the rate is, they will spend their money the same way they always do. holders aren't holding just cause it's deflationary, they're holding because it's EARLY
Bitcoin (and blockchain in particular) does NOT scale. The Bitcoin blockchain is currently at 200GB and if it ever gains mass adoption as a micro-payment currency, the blockchain will explode into terabytes.
Technocrats are so ignorant about economics, politics, history and money. They actually think a decentralized cryptocurrency is even possible. I could explain for 3 hours why this is, but right now I will give you the "quick" answer. In the US Constitution, article 1 section 8 gives Congress the power to determine units of weight, measure, and value. This means the Congress determines how long a yard is, how much does a gallon weigh, and finally, what's a dollar and it's value. Many people don't understand, the federal government usurped this power from the states in the 1787 constitution, which is also a very interesting story. That means the Congress, and only Congress has the power to determine what money is! That is their ACE OF SPADES! In fact most of the Founding Father's stated taking the power of the states from printing money was the most important part of the 1787 Constitution. All governments must be able to retrieve their currencies, for all kinds of reasons, like government spending and controlling inflation. I do believe a centrally planned digital currency is coming, but of course it will be controlled by the Congress, US Treasury, and of course the Federal Reserve. If by chance cryptocurrencies were starting to threaten the US government's role in controlling the money supply, the Congress would simply state their Congressional authority and either make it illegal or regulate it out of existence. There are even more important reasons why the US government will always have the power to determine what money is, like modern monetary theory, being on a floating exchange rate, and the fact the government must spend the currency into existence first before taxes can even be collected, which actually doesn't even pay for government spending, but that's also another story. The power to determine what money is probably the most important part of the Constitution ,and it isn't going anywhere. By the way crypto investor, the market does not set interest rates, the government does. The own-rate of any monopoly currency is always zero!
You are right for the wrong reason. Bitcoin and the blockchain was created under a cartoonish view of history and anthroplogy.
As a rule, nerds don't learn history, and everyone will end up paying for it!
The Earth is a very rare planet in our Galaxy to even use a monatary system. It fascinates visitors from other parts of the universe. It's a very strange thing if you really think outside the box. Oh wait let me guess you think I'm crazy to believe there's life out there.
Crypto is at the point where people who’s involved with it are understanding the potential and its values (at least most of us) now it’s our turn the mid class of bitcoin society to make this coin more functional and relevant in our life.
I agree that some degree of inflation is expected in the consumer economy - but the problem is that in the US, the inflation rate is much much higher than the CPI reports because of things like healthcare, education, etc. The fact that real wage growth is close to zero, and government is giving 4 trillion dollars a year to rich mega corporations... this has to end eventually, and whether it is as a result of exit through crypto by citizens or the eventual hyperinflation, sovereign debt default, and austerity measures imposed, it WILL end at some point.
It's quite rare in the crypto sphere to stumble upon somebody who actually understands something about the monetary system and the economy. Or maybe some other do as well but they do not like confrontation therefore they rather just keep quiet and hold on to those precious subscribers. Which ever the reason, it's really nice to find someone with a voice of reason who's not afraid to provide people with actual facts even knowing that a lot of people do not like/understand/want to believe in facts.
Reading through some of the comments, I find it quite amazing, that majority of people in this 600 billion dollar crypto market are completely unable to comprehend the costs/benefits of inflation, deflation, gold standard, credit etc - and these should be the basics.
Another good video, keep it up!
Disagree with the narrator. Gold served as regulator for the greed of men for thousands of years. It wasn't until the American revolution that we got back to sound monetary policy and look at what it created....the most free and wealthy nation since Rome. And what made Rome collapse? Devaluation of a currency...debasement.. inflation. Today the FED just calls it quantative easing... LOL. And today the market doesn't set interest rates the Federal Reserve artificially set that rate. And when you give a central bank unlimited authority to manipulate interest rates and money printing...you get a 60 trillion dollar deficit that's unpayable. This will collapse a nations currency. I'm not saying this from a personal or political perspective. I'm saying this from a historical perspective. Now That central banks are playing God with interest rates... They have now created manipulations and interventions not markets. Unfortunately this will destroy the wealth of millions and millions of people in my opinion. Gold based money = sound monetary policies which encourage growth through weath accumulation. God bless
How is the idea that growth of economies is good when it encourages overpopulation usurping the worlds limited space and limited resources. Economic growth is the self fulfilling prophecy of the FIAT system that has encouraged greed for greed's sake. Secondly when governments cant print money they can afford things like wars and a massive military their friends supply.
You talked from the current paradigm that is working; the game all rules of which have been set already. In order to understand the future and Bitcoin, you need to think from a new paradigm; which will be a new game with new rules. This will need a lot of explanation and discussion here..
You’re whole argument is flawed. You’re saying bitcoin could not fit in our current economic system and that’s the point. Bitcoin was modeled after gold, which is also a store of value. But as we all know good was once a currency, and not a store of value. Our entire economic system was different due to this. Bitcoin could in theory become the new gold standard. A standard of which, would encourage people to save save and invest their money and discourage credit and loans. This wouldn’t hamper economic growth, either, in fact it would give us greater responsibility in how we approach money.
What's more likely: people hoarding vast amounts of USD during a deflationary period to increase their wealth, OR people hoarding vast amounts of stocks, gold, crypto assets (i.e. not consumer spending) during an inflationary period to increase their yield?
Hmm... I also wonder why there was such tremendous spending in the late 19th / early 20th century when we were still on the gold standard...
Shame to see so many people bowing down to the altar of Keynesian Economics. Your liberal college did you a disservice by indoctrinating you to believe the Fed / inflation is a "good" thing.
The fundamental problem with your argument is that you assume that an inflation-driven, credit-based consumer economy is the best model for economic development and will continue to be so in the future. I think bitcoin not only as in the cryptocurrency but bitcoin the idea can by its very open nature evolve into what is needed to replace the USD. You can't just brush off the abuses like you just did in the video. People really want out of that Federal Reserve Note Shitcoin!
Bitcoin will never replace fiat. It will be a substitute to gold, that's it. This looks bad for bitcoin but it isn't that bad. Bitcoin has a clear purpose that many people can understand. The question is what is the purpose of all the other high tech coins and will they be replaced by even higher tech coins.
If Bitcoin can have some stability, I suppose it could be used as an alternative currency. But boy, if it can change 5 percent from the time of transaction to post, it's not so good for that just yet. Hope it can stabilize soon--it's been so volatile, esp. intraday.
I am a hater of your channel bro, not that I hate you, nor anything like that, you are doing an awesome work with this channel but I completely disagree with your opinions, and your channel is definitely not for me, and I keep pressing not interested, but youtube keeps playing your videos anyway, WHY YOUTUBE, OH WHY????
anyways.... I recognized it was you at the moment you said: "what doesn't make sense ..... bitcoin in the long term will be capable of replacing fiat currencies"
I watch a lot of economic videos and have a strong education in the subject. And this video really is probably going to change the way I look at the big picture in terms of currency and economies. You have some really impressive content in it. And I thank you for that.
I agree with almost everything said including the benefits of an moderately inflationary currency. The issue is, Who is going to hold dollars when a deflationary alternative exists? the only way an inflationary currency can work is when there is no alternative and the only means of escape are illiquid investments.
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